Every Premier League team that has finished with 36 points or more over the last nine seasons has stayed up without fail. Since the league expanded to 20 teams in the 1995-96 season, the average points needed to secure 17th place — the last safe spot — is 35.53.
No club in the past nine campaigns has gathered 36 points and still been relegated. However, this season is shaping up to be the toughest survival battle in 15 years. With 35 rounds completed, the team in 18th place is projected to end on 39 points, meaning 40 points would be enough to guarantee safety.
In 30 Premier League seasons with 38 games, 36 points has ensured survival 60% of the time. That safety rate jumps to 80% with 38 points, 90% with 40 points, and becomes 100% once a team reaches 43 points or more.
West Ham holds the record for the club with the most points to be relegated in the 20-team era. In 2002-03, the Hammers collected 42 points but still went down.
The survival thresholds for the last two seasons have been significantly lower, as newly promoted sides struggled. In the previous two campaigns, just 26 and 27 points were enough to stay up. Before the 2023-24 season, only one time had a total below 30 points been sufficient for safety.
Here is a breakdown of how many points have historically been enough to avoid relegation in the 38-game Premier League era (30 seasons):
– 25 points or less: survival in 0 seasons (0%)
– 26 points: survival in 1 season (3.33%)
– 27 points: survival in 2 seasons (6.67%)
– 28 points: survival in 2 seasons (6.67%)
– 29 points: survival in 3 seasons (10%)
– 30 points: survival in 3 seasons (10%)
– 31 points: survival in 4 seasons (13.33%)
– 32 points: survival in 4 seasons (13.33%)
– 33 points: survival in 4 seasons (13.33%)
– 34 points: survival in 9 seasons (30%)
– 35 points: survival in 16 seasons (53.33%)
– 36 points: survival in 18 seasons (60%)
– 37 points: survival in 23 seasons (76.67%)
– 38 points: survival in 24 seasons (80%)
– 39 points: survival in 26 seasons (86.67%)
– 40 points: survival in 27 seasons (90%)
– 41 points: survival in 29 seasons (96.67%)
– 42 points: survival in 29 seasons (96.67%)
– 43+ points: survival in all 30 seasons (100%)
The actual points needed for safety each season since the Premier League’s 38-game format began:
– 1995-96: 39
– 1996-97: 41
– 1997-98: 41
– 1998-99: 37
– 1999-00: 34
– 2000-01: 35
– 2001-02: 37
– 2002-03: 43
– 2003-04: 34
– 2004-05: 34
– 2005-06: 35
– 2006-07: 39
– 2007-08: 37
– 2008-09: 35
– 2009-10: 31
– 2010-11: 40
– 2011-12: 37
– 2012-13: 37
– 2013-14: 34
– 2014-15: 36
– 2015-16: 38
– 2016-17: 35
– 2017-18: 34
– 2018-19: 35
– 2019-20: 35
– 2020-21: 29
– 2021-22: 36
– 2022-23: 35
– 2023-24: 27
– 2024-25: 26
This analysis comes from a review of Premier League relegation data across the 38-game era.